Despite the “John McCain is History” sentiment prevalent among so many of the uninformed and naive in DC and NYC, the Arizona Senator is beginning to climb out of his cyclical rut — despite a spate of gaffes — while Rudy Giuliani is beginning the slow, inevitable slide back to reality.
While Rudy has made some smart GOP primary plays lately — like charging another 9/11 would be more likely if a Dem was in the White House — his slippage was always in the cards, and his staying power is now definitely in question.
And forget the national polls, where Rudy is up but slipping and where McCain is languishing.
Things aren’t great for McCain in IA, NH and SC, but there’s good reason for optimism. Some reporting from the Boston Herald this morning lays it out:
On the heels of his formal campaign announcement in Portsmouth, N.H., last week, the poll by American Research Group shows McCain leading the Granite State with 29 percent support – a six-point hike over his ranking in March. Former Bay State Gov. Mitt Romney is running a strong second in New Hampshire at 24 percent, while former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has dropped 10 points to 17 since February, the poll shows.
The news for McCain is also good in Iowa and South Carolina, which are also among the first states to vote in the 2008 GOP primary. In Iowa, McCain dropped slightly from 29 to 26 percent, but is up from the 23 percent he received in February. Giuliani is at 19 in Iowa, a 10-point decline since February, while Romney is at 14 percent, up from just 8 two months ago.
In South Carolina, the poll shows McCain at 36 percent, Giuliani at 23, actor Fred Thompson at 10 and Romney at 6.
While Romney remains an attractive wild card, there’s a nascent storyline developing about the McCain resurgence and the Rudy slippage.
At the GOP Reagan Library debate on 5/3, look for Rudy to be attacked in a collegial yet sharp manner on abortion, gays and guns. This will drive his further slippage and serve as a strong, legit newspeg to write stories as to why Rudy’s headed south in the polls, among other reasons.