Insights

Besides the Arizona Senate race between GOP Rep. Jeff Flake and Democrat Richard Carmona, which has become a tight contest, the Virginia race between George Allen and Tim Kaine warrants attention in that Allen needs to focus his message and his rationale. While Allen...

Walking back to Georgetown from Memorial Bridge, where I stood for at least an hour in silence watching the smoldering Pentagon, the first thing one could notice was that even M Street and Wisconsin Avenue had pretty much cleared out, as most, presumably, stayed...

Like millions of Americans, i was already at work that fateful morning. It was a sunny, beautiful day in Georgetown, and had just enjoyed a dark roast coffee on my porch overlooking the serene courtyard. It was just like any other day. Seated back at my desk right...

I was greeted this morning by a crescendo of email alerts and tweets declaring that Mitt Romney and Michelle Bachmann "won" the CNN GOP presdiential primary debate in Manchester, NH -- and that's essentially correct. It's also true that Tim Pawlenty was the consensus...

Alexandria, VA -- As Senator Ben Nelson (D-NE) already faces an extremely challenging re-election environment, it will be even more difficult for him in a presidential election cycle, when he will be running alongside Barack Obama. In an off-year re-elect, extremely...

I lost my shirt on this race, and still don't get it. How did Reid win while topping out at mid-40's in his ballot w/ Sharon Angle while suffering an unfav that was rarely below 52? Mark Mellman and Jim Margolis explain in this piece, courtesy of PollingReport.com:...

Tim Graves, President of the Texas Health Care Association (THCA) in Austin, TX has taken a measured, rational, intelligent approach to opposing the Medicaid "opt-out" proposal being fanned by Governor Rick Perry and newly-emboldened House conservatives in the Texas...

Online advertising in political campaigns is of value. the question is, how much? This article by Vinny Minchillo, creative director for Scott Howell and Co., reflects my sentiment entirely, and appears in the 11/1/10 Advertising Age: Online's a Fine Place to Start,...

Any reasonable observer of the 2010 campaign season can conclude President Obama has been completely ineffective selling his agenda, his policies and a rationale for continuing to support Democrats in Congress. Its been a steady downhill plunge for Obama and...

Have always been impressed with the ferocity of the campaigns waged by Barbara Boxer against hapless opponents over the years. Something seems different this time: Boxer's liberal brand is stale and the cookie cutter SEIU-style negative class warfare attacks seem...

On Election Day, Senate GOP incumbent Norm Coleman squeezed out a 721 vote victory against former funnyman Al Franken. As scattered votes from the DFL strongholds of the Iron Range – and in particular, Duluth – rolled in with almost uncanny timing throughout the early and late morning hours of November 5th, Al Franken – […]

While he didn’t even compete in Iowa, John McCain is the big winner tonight as the Iowa Caucus results unfold — and as Mitt Romney takes a big hit from Mike Huckabee in the run-up to the New Hampshire primary. McCain couldn’t have scripted it any better: a weakened, vulnerable Romney will now stagger into […]

With the resurgent campaign of John McCain (still more hype than reality, but there is indeed some incremental movement) laying the wood to Mitt Romney as an unprincipled liberal flip-flopper, the chief beneficiary is none other than Rudy Giuliani. There appears to be a mindset established over the past two weeks or so in which […]

Rudy Giuliani’s AP interview bylined yesterday by Liz Sidoti and Libby Quaid is starting to look like there’ll be a need to “re-explain” his view — dangerous that it is if it stands — that a tax increase might be needed to shore up Social Security. Here’s the offending article excerpt: Giuliani “refused to rule […]

There’s enough anecdotal and real evidence in terms of an incremental polling uptick that it’s inevitable the NYT, WP, WSJ or other opinion-leader will write a trend-setting “John McCain’s Back” story very, very soon. To help this along, the McCain campaign is spinning the John Kerry 2004 Iowa comeback analogy, which is somewhat overstated, but […]

This was one of those seminal days in Washington, where a hard-core political attack by an ideologically-aligned group finally backfires under the weight of time and scrutiny. Washington lives for this. President Bush, sensing the moment of perfect timing, gleefully and in a clearly pre-scripted manner, hammered MoveOn.org’s ill-considered (after the fact) Petraeus/Betray Us NYT […]

As this Rudy-MoveOn.org fracas continues to unfold, this slugfest is becoming a mismatch. Giuliani is milking this to the max in Iowa with paid advertising slamming weak, “anti-war liberals”. They should bump the radio up to TV. “But wait” say some observers (all inside the beltway): MoveOn has upped their tv buy slamming Rudy for […]

With all the brouhaha and negative cable news coverage regarding candidate-in-waiting Fred Thompson’s decision to skip tonight’s Fox News New Hampshire debate in favor of a Jay Leno appearance in Hollywood, and how it’s going to “hurt” him – that’s all a total crock. In fact, it’s a solid strategic move for several reasons: First, […]

Besides the fact Rudy Giuliani’s presidential campaign has developed a plausible message centered upon strength and leadership, it has shown itself to be increasingly nimble and agile on the political front — seeking advantage and opportunity by living off the land using campaign savvy and the wire and glue of spin needed in this game […]

There’s obviously not much good news for the presidential campaign of Arizona Senator John McCain. The odds are that he’s cooked, especially with the imminent entry of Fred Thompson, who has helped starve the McCain campaign of needed funds. But as grim as things are at the moment, there’s at least one corollary benefit, however […]

Senator Barack Obama’s presidential effort is hauling in a boatload of cash, but his credibility is sinking fast as the rookie politician continues to blame staffers for various transgressions related to competency and judgment. For example, Obama called the ‘Hillary Clinton (D-Punjab)’ memo “a screw-up on the part of our research staff” (Des Moines Register). […]

The interesting Ben Smith article in Politico this morning reporting on Hillary Clinton’s new auxilliary website, HillaryHub.com, contains plenty of valid points and analysis in regard to how the internet is impacting the dissemination of news from campaigns. Smith reports, “Not long ago, a campaign had a couple of options for getting out word of […]

Watching Carl Bernstein discuss with CNN’s Wolf Blitzer his new book about Hillary Clinton, “A Woman in Charge,” the discussion this morning was solely a rehash of past foibles, mistakes and indulgences on the part of the Clintons. When one hears the name “Betsy Wright” bandied about — and all of her twenty plus years […]

Per the Des Moines Register, Rudy Giuliani will skip the Ames straw poll in August, but still compete in the Iowa caucus. While blowing off the circus-like Ames event, Giuliani manager Mike DuHaime said ‘We are 100 percent committed to winning the Iowa caucuses. We’re going to take the resources that would have been spent […]

Just a sidenote from the CNN debate this evening and the subsequent commentary: Mike Murphy should get more airtime and Amy Holmes far less. Murphy knows the biz as well as anyone and has been a player at the presidential and major statewide level for years. He’s inciteful, honest, objective and funny — the GOP […]

Despite the fact AZ Senator John McCain did not do bad at the CNN debate in Manchester, NH this evening — in fact, he did OK — it was simply that Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani did better, and for different reasons. Romney, right at the outset, handled the McCain immigration charge of having no […]

The instant react: Despite the fact Hillary Clinton and John Edwards both advanced their own causes at CNN’s debate tonite at St. Anselm’s College in Manchester, NH, Barack Obama probably came out the best. Obama “won” in this viewer’s opinion because he projected so much more gravitas than in the last major debate, in which […]

Beyond the substantial structural and organizational challenges awaiting likely presidential candidate Fred Thompson, perhaps one of his biggest obstacles is Ronald Reagan — and the fact there is no possible way he will meet the media and activist expectations bar set for him as, quote, “the next Ronald Reagan.” As some have intimated in recent […]

Instant post debate react: Besides the fact the SC Fox News GOP presidential primary debate was vastly more interesting and better than MSNBC’s recent debate, one key headline of the debate has to be that Rudy Giuliani recovered somewhat from his first debate — with his forceful answers on terrorism and leaving it vague as […]

The Washington Post’s front pager today by John Solomon and Matthew Mosk, “In Private Sector, Giuliani Parlayed Fame Into Wealth,” Giuliani Partners remains an easy target for both investigative enterprise reporting and for opponents. Here’s the bottom line: until there is transparency and candor in regard to Giuliani Partners’ client list and other key bottom […]

The campaign of GOP presdiential candidate Mitt Romney has cleverly and skillfully drawn the Rev. Al Sharpton into a high profile “religious slur” pissing match that helps the GOP candidate significantly every news cycle the story remains alive — especially as Sharpton tries to ease himself out, signaling the white flag of defeat. Case in […]

From Hotline On Call posted today: May 09, 2007 Rudy’s New State Directors Aren’t Vets Of Their States “Talented and experienced as they are, we noticed that Joe Jarabek, who’s been appointed Giuliani’s Iowa state director, and Jennifer Hallowell, who’s been appointed Giuliani’s New Hampshire state director, don’t seem to have much Iowa and New […]

The morning after, assesments of the debate are all over the map, but we must concur with David Yepsen’s straight-on view: “John McCain was his old self in Thursday night’s Republican presidential debate: Feisty, pointed and a straight-talker who wasn’t afraid to tell Republican activists things they didn’t want to hear. It made him the […]

In a challenging format, McCain won the show — he was well lit, looked vigorous, demonstrated his debate experience; Gilmore the second tier winner. Rudy too much time on abortion… more later.

Despite the “John McCain is History” sentiment prevalent among so many of the uninformed and naive in DC and NYC, the Arizona Senator is beginning to climb out of his cyclical rut — despite a spate of gaffes — while Rudy Giuliani is beginning the slow, inevitable slide back to reality. While Rudy has made […]

The National Review recently proffered the notion that Arizona Senator John McCain should pledge to serve one term as a remedy for “the age issue,” and noted “it would separate him from the GOP pack and fit the ‘narrative arc’ of his career, acting above self-interest.” It would, they suggested, “defuse the age issue” – […]

When I tell my musically-literate friends that Grateful Dead guitarist/vocalist Bob Weir’s band, RatDog, is the hottest band on the planet, I routinely get glazed-over looks of skepticism, incredulity and outright derision. They just don’t know any better — and they would see things differently if they had been fortunate enough to catch the band’s […]

This from ABC’s The Note this morning: (For the record, DCSpectator falls under “Group One” below — just so it’s understood in the context of other posts…) The Gang of 500’s previous unanimous view that Rudy Giuliani cannot win the Republican presidential nomination has come to a stunning end, and the Gang is now cleaved […]

Rudy Giuliani’s continued good fortune was in evidence last night, as the AP reports Rudy is leading in a somewhat significant first test of strength: the Spartanburg County straw poll. In the final tally, he lost to Sen. John McCain by just two votes: 164-162. Anonymous mailings critical of Mitt Romney on the eve of […]

Lets’s first start out by saying the Rudy guys have converted plenty of skeptics in regard to his seriousness, the competency and national ring savvy of his staff, and his overall credibility. His emerging message, that “more freedom” must be the ultimate guide to help solve a plethora of domestic policy ills, is right out […]

Marc Ambinder of Hotline On Call lays out this “Ten Truths About Rudy Giuliani” very, very well: 1. He enters the race more admired; and, not only more admired, more-liked than any presidential candidate since Eisenhower. His national poll ratings do not simply reflect name recognition. They reflect the intrinsic bond that Giuliani formed with […]

While the Manchester Union Leader is reporting this afternoon on its blog that George Pataki’s entry into the 2008 presidential contest is hardly imminent and perhaps a no-go, Rudy Giuliani is making some political and personnel moves as of late that are getting skeptics to take a second look. Here’s the Union Leader: Pataki isn’t […]

The new DC political blog, The Politico, is up today with an interesting article by former NY Daily News reporter Ben Smith and Jonathan Martin raising still more questions about Rudy Giuliani’s nascent presidential campaign effort. I still say he’s out by the end of first quarter — despite the news that Rudy is selling […]

An interesting development between the two true GOP frontrunners John McCain and Mitt Romney is how DC outsider Romney is making a good run at lining up U.S. House members in his camp. McCain’s got a slew of House endorsements to make once he takes the plunge as an official candidate, but there’s little question […]

As GOP presidential candidates John McCain and Mitt Romney continue to crisply line up staff, issue policy pronouncements that have the appearance of substance, and act like the top tier primary candidates they are, Rudy Giuliani’s effort is beginning to take on the appearance of a Potemkin village. The Rudy forces argue that, indeed, they’re […]

The increasingly moribund Washington bureau of the New York Times is getting a huge new boost of fresh, creative energy as the Chicaco Tribune’s Jeff Zeleny joins the Times to “to cover the intersection of politics and money and to tackle investigative projects about political corruption,” according to Times DC bureau chief, Phil Taubman. Zeleny’s […]

The multi-front pressure Clinton Administration forces have placed on ABC-TV regarding the pending “docu-drama” surrounding the run-up to 9/11 is paying off, with ABC now on the defensive and production consultant Tom Kean positioning himself as an advocate for script and scene edits. Howie Kurtz’s article in the Washington Post this morning makes it appear […]

Today’s Jonathan Hicks/Pat Healy New York Times follow-up to Wayne Barrett’s Village Voice investigative piece regarding Andrew Cuomo’s ties to a controversial businessman, Andrew Farkas, is striking in that it demonstrates the extent to which Cuomo and his supporters worked to postpone the Voice’s publication of the story until after the Democratic primary. Putting aside […]

As first reported by the NYT Empire Zone reports, Josh Isay is coming aboard as campaign director to steer this front-running but uncertain vessel towards judgment day in just over two months. This’ll help get a little of the joe-mentum mojo back, it’s a good bet. With all the staffing tumult in Lieberman’s campaign, and […]

The Hotline item today reporting that GOP polling guru Lance Tarrance has signed on with John McCain’s Straight Talk America PAC is an interesting and significant development in the GOP ’08 primary competition, which is well underway. Lance, along with Arthur Finkelstein, Bob Teeter and perhaps a few others are pioneers in the pantheon of […]

There’s some interesting buzz on Rudy Giuliani that’s just now beginning to percolate in DC: his Ralph Reed gambit, and its failure, may be the first ripple that starts a long downward spiral of cyclical bad press (or not so glaringly glowing press) that is inevitable. Mort Kondrake, among others who are rational and intelligent, […]

GOP Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas is profiled today in a superb piece from USA Today’s Susan Page — who gets a rare chance to stretch out and show her reporting chops beyond the standard 400 word piece that’s the dull hallmark of USAT. The point of the piece is that the GOP better wake […]

As Governor George Pataki’s last legislative session draws to a close, we kicked around an idea at empirepage.com to see how New Yorkers viewed Pataki’s 12 years as Governor. In addition to the previously reported question regarding which U.S. Senator is more effective, Chuck Schumer or Hillary Clinton, we also asked our polling partner, Siena, […]

According to a new poll of NYS registered voters conducted for the Empire Page by Siena Research Institute (6/12-14, 623 RV’s, +/- 3.9%) U.S. Senator Charles Schumer, by a 44% to 22% margin, is viewed as more effective for New York State than U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton. When asked,”Who is a more effective senator for […]

After months of taking unanswered hits, there’s a palpable sense among Republicans in DC today that a corner is being turned, and that the cyclical news tide is turning. Besides showing some welcome spunk, energy and good-natured ribbing of ABC’s Jake Tapper and NBC’s David Gregory, President Bush’s news conference this morning demonstrated the White […]

The Columbia Journalism Review’s “CJR Daily” reports today that “Reporters Tire of Bad Political Reporting,” and that what’s needed is “big-picture changes that could improve news coverage in the upcoming campaign season.” The question posed to several journalists: “Some veteran American journalists see the 2006 elections as offering the press a momentous opportunity to revolt […]

Tom Reynolds’ quote is superb, and the analysis shows why “The Note” from ABC News rules: “Ordinarily, there is nothing more annoying than reading press releases from the congressional campaign committees of both parties. They tend to be filled with over-the-top spin, dumb jokes, macho indirection, and juvenile taunts. These releases are so dumb, in […]

With all the action in New York today with Weld, it’s easy to overlook the CA-50 special election to replace Rep. Duke Cunningham – which is huge deal in DC tonight as the sun goes down and local California polls close shortly. And no one has as much at stake as New York GOP Congressman […]

With the AP’s Marc Humbert leading the unfolding coverage of the Bill Weld-Steve Minarick dance, it’s becoming clear, unfortunately, that Weld will pull out of the race in the next 24-48 hours. Several emails from reliable individuals indicate this will be the case. One Albany-based Republican also said this was simply Minarik’s attempt to save […]

Same sex marriages? Nope — don’t support it. A truly terrible idea. But President Bush’s expected “major policy announcement” today calling for a constitutional amendment to ban same sex marriages is a big yawn. Frankly, it should be insulting to the influential swath of GOP voters who care about this issue. It’s as if, like […]

Among the political blogosphere’s biggest liabilities is that a majority of those commenting on politics and public policy have never worked on a campaign, have never served as an aide to a federal, state or municipal lawmaker, and simply have no contextual understanding regarding their own misguided, uninformed opinions. Moreover, most of these bloviators have […]

As incumbent members of Congress gaze forebodingly across the electoral landscape towards November, a new Zogby interactive poll shows some astoundingly poor results in regard to how trustworthy Americans find Congress, the Courts, the Media and other public institutions: Overall, just 3% said they think Congress in general is trustworthy, compared to 24% who said […]

When Arizona GOP Senator John McCain shows up in Manhattan later this week to speak at the New School graduation to reportedly defend the U.S. involvement in Iraq, the throngs of protesters sure to show up will simply end up as press fodder for McCain’s ongoing courtship of the conservative GOP base. McCain, speaking on […]

After the cost and visibility of including member-designated spending projects in the New York state budget became an issue in this year’s negotiations, the Empire Page decided to gauge how registered NYS voters feel about the practice — and the results of a new survey conducted for the Empire Page by Siena College are very […]

GOP consultant and grassroots expert Terry Nelson is the hottest consultant in town at the moment, and the former Bush-Cheney ’04 political director’s recent alignment with John McCain’s Straight Talk America PAC is rightly seen as a boon to McCain’s developing presidential effort — especially in Nelson’s home state of Iowa. But Nelson’s new hook-up […]

Was it worth pushing the button on the remote to shell out fifty bucks on Saturday night for the Oscar De La Hoya-Ricardo Mayorga pay per view? Absolutely. Despite the fizzling undercard, the main event for the WBC junior middleweight belt was an excellent, high energy, brutal fight. For the past month, Mayorga the crude, […]